Compliance infrastructure is expanding. The threshold for credible climate claims is rising — Q1 2026

Tamara NameroffGlobal Director, R&D and Sustainability at ACT

Q1 2026 confirmed a single direction across every major jurisdiction: compliance infrastructure is expanding, and the threshold for credible climate claims is rising. The EU reinforced its carbon market rather than retreating from it. China extended mandatory emissions reporting to six additional sectors and launched a zero-carbon factory program that creates certificate demand across its industrial supply chains. Brazil created a new structured compliance market for biomethane. Switzerland tightened its legal definition of what a corporate climate claim can say. The exception is the US federal position, where the EPA's withdrawal of its endangerment finding raises the bar for any future federal climate legislation. That does not reverse state programs. Colorado and Illinois both advanced clean energy mandates for data centers in Q1. The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit guidance, meanwhile, is broadly positive for renewable energy certificates while changing the economics of HEFA-based SAF pathways. Market-based mechanisms are being built out, not wound back. Read on to discover what these policy developments mean for you.

Valid as of 1st May 2026.

This round-up covers regulatory developments confirmed between January and March 2026. For full item-level analysis, see the monthly updates: January 2026 | February 2026 | March 2026

Europe

The EU's carbon market held its ground through a turbulent quarter. At the March leaders' summit, the Commission rejected calls to suspend the ETS and confirmed four concrete stabilization measures: updated free allocation benchmarks, increased Market Stability Reserve firepower, a revised post-2034 free allocation trajectory, and a EUR 30bn investment fund financed by EUAs. MSR reinforcement is expected to be fast-tracked ahead of the July 2026 ETS review. ETS-2, the buildings and road transport scheme, was delayed one year to 2028 under the Omnibus I package, with limited international credit use now under active consideration for the scheme.

On carbon removals, the Commission adopted the first methodologies under the Carbon Removal Certification Framework in February, covering DACCS, BioCCS, and biochar, with the July 2026 ETS review set to determine whether removal credits acquire compliance value. The post-2030 climate framework consultations, also launched in February, include a provision for up to 235 MtCO₂ of international credits toward the 2040 target, though signals from Commission officials suggest quality criteria could exceed current Article 6.4 standards.

The EU Automotive Package, published in January, formally embeds bio-LNG, biomethane, and RFNBOs in the post-2035 automotive compliance regime through a 3% fuel credit mechanism. Fertilizers were confirmed within CBAM scope, with full pricing in force from January 2026. France published biomethane and biofuel production targets for 2026–2035, 47–82 TWh and 70–90 TWh respectively, reinforcing certificate supply from the EU's largest installed biomethane market. Switzerland confirmed new climate claims rules restricting carbon credits to contribution claims only, with Guarantees of Origin explicitly accepted within emissions accounting frameworks.

Monthly detail:

Asia-Pacific

China produced the highest volume of regulatory activity in the region. In January, the finalized Green Electricity Certificate regulation came into force, expanding eligibility to cross-border grid-connected generators adjacent to China and introducing a same-calendar-year matching requirement for GEC cancellation, a material operational constraint for multinationals sourcing RECs in the Chinese market. In February, mandatory emissions reporting requirements were extended to petrochemicals, chemicals, copper, glass, paper, and aviation, with steel, aluminum, and cement targeted for ETS entry in 2027. A parallel zero-carbon factory program, covering automotive, battery, photovoltaic, and electronics sectors from 2026, explicitly recognizes GECs and carbon credits as market compliance instruments. Together, these developments point to a materially larger compliance market by 2027–2030, with rising demand for CCERs and GECs across industrial supply chains.

In Singapore, the pre-approved methodology list for its Article 6 bilateral agreement with Vietnam was published in January, defining which project types qualify for cross-border credit transfers. In India, the PNGRB approved national guidelines for biomethane injection into gas grids in February, a structural precondition for a mass-balanced certificate market in a country with over 130 operating biomethane plants, the majority currently off-grid. In Japan, the Port of Yokohama published a decarbonization plan committing to Clean Gas Certificate procurement above 1% of city gas consumption by 2030, aligned with Japan's national grid obligation and signaling early industrial demand for imported renewable gas certificates.

Monthly detail:

Americas

The US federal picture shifted further in Q1. The EPA's withdrawal of its endangerment finding is the most significant federal climate rollback to date. It does not affect state-level programs, but it raises the bar for any future federal climate legislation. At the state level, the direction is opposite: Colorado advanced legislation requiring data centers above 30 MW to meet 100% renewable consumption from 2031, with hourly matching assessed for feasibility by 2030; the Illinois House advanced a parallel clean energy obligation for its 240-plus data centers, with EAC requirements beginning in 2027.

On tax credits, Treasury and IRS published proposed regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit in February. The guidance confirms that Renewable Energy Credits can reduce a producer's carbon intensity score. For SAF, the removal of the previously higher base rate materially changes HEFA pathway economics post-2025.

In Brazil, ANP finalized Resolution No. 995/2026 establishing mandatory biomethane decarbonization targets for gas producers and importers under the Future Fuels Law. Compliance is met through retirement of Biomethane Certificates of Guarantee of Origin (CGOBs), creating structured certificate demand for the first time. The resolution also requires disclosure of whether the same volume generated RenovaBio CBIO credits, directly addressing double-counting risk.

Monthly detail:

Global

The GHG Protocol published its Land Sector and Removals Standard in February 2026, after five years of development. The standard provides the first credible, standardized corporate methodology for accounting for agricultural emissions, soil carbon, and sequestration claims, including regenerative agriculture. It will increasingly shape how auditors and buyers assess carbon credit claims from land-based projects.

Monthly detail: February 2026

We track regulatory and policy developments across compliance and voluntary markets.

Advisory support is included in every service we deliver. Our specialists help you assess needs, choose the right approach, and plan next steps. Every solution is aligned with your industry requirements. Support with local and international regulations helps set you up for effective execution.

Disclaimer

This content reflects regulatory developments confirmed as of 1st May 2026 and was accurate as of the date of publication. It is provided for general informational purposes only, is limited to confirmed developments, and does not purport to be comprehensive. Any forward-looking statements reflect the position as understood at the date of publication and are subject to change.

This content does not constitute legal, regulatory, tax, or compliance advice. Readers should obtain independent professional advice before acting on the information contained herein.

Neither ACT Commodities Group B.V. nor any of its subsidiaries, affiliates, or group companies (together, "ACT Group"), nor their respective directors, officers, employees, or agents, accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information set out herein, except to the extent such liability cannot be excluded by applicable law. ACT Group is under no obligation to update this content after the date of publication.